Lask Linz 1-2 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lask Linz (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Lask Linz face SCR Altach.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
SCR Altach make the trip to Raiffeisen Arena to face Lask Linz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 August 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Lask Linz have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Lask Linz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lask Linz's home record at Raiffeisen Arena: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
SCR Altach (all games): 2W 5D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SCR Altach's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The points-per-game gap of 0.80 in Lask Linz's favour (1.90 vs 1.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across 4 previous meetings, Lask Linz are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 1 draws in between.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.8 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Mar 2024, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The historical record gives Lask Linz a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 4 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Lask Linz half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 38% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 30% of games.
SCR Altach half-time and goal-timing data (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 42% versus SCR Altach 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 39% | SCR Altach 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.43 xG and SCR Altach 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 0.953 / defence 0.976 | SCR Altach attack 0.971 / defence 1.005. League average goals — home 1.493 / away 1.131. Data: 23 Lask Linz games / 23 SCR Altach games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 45% | Draw 26% | SCR Altach 28%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | SCR Altach 3.57. Lask Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Lask Linz 50% | SCR Altach 50%.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (23 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 45% | Draw 26% | SCR Altach 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 50% | xG Lask Linz 1.43 / SCR Altach 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 0.953 / def 0.976 | SCR Altach attack 0.971 / def 1.005 | league avg home 1.493 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.07
SCR Altach xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs SCR Altach kick off?
Lask Linz vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs SCR Altach?
Lask Linz 1 - 2 SCR Altach.
Where is Lask Linz vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs SCR Altach part of?
Lask Linz vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 45% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Lask Linz and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and SCR Altach?
Record (4 meetings): Lask Linz 3W | Draws 1 | SCR Altach 0W.
What form are Lask Linz and SCR Altach in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Lask Linz's attack rating (0.95) and SCR Altach's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.43 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — SCR Altach's attack (0.97x) against Lask Linz's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 23/23 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
45%
2.21
26%
3.78
28%
3.54
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.50
1.07
SCR Altach xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.54
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.00
50%
BTTS No
2.00
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
15%
6.45
7%
14.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 12.6 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.07 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Lask Linz's recent record stands at 15W 10D 8L from 33 games, a 1.67 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Lask Linz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 6W 13D 14L across 33 games — 0.94 PPG, with D-L-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lask Linz by 0.73 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SCR Altach heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Lask Linz have managed 9W 4D 3L from 16 games — 1.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 3W 6D 7L across 16 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Lask Linz are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.03 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.85 scored and 1.27 conceded.
Defensively: Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Early Season
SCR Altach
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 15W 10D 8L in their last 33 games (1.67 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 6W 13D 14L in their last 33 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or SCR Altach away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.94 PPG; SCR Altach away: 0.94 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or SCR Altach been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, SCR Altach in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 9 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 4-1 on 27 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against SCR Altach — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Lask Linz
2
Draws
2
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 6, SCR Altach have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2025, when Lask Linz 1-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and SCR Altach?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 38%, SCR Altach 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Lask Linz) and 44% (SCR Altach).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; SCR Altach in 31%; SCR Altach in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 44% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Lask Linz's recent games and 44% of SCR Altach's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as SCR Altach defy the odds to beat Lask Linz 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach beat Lask Linz 1-2 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.43 xG and SCR Altach 1.07 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. SCR Altach outscored their 1.07 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.95 / defence 0.98 against SCR Altach attack 0.97 / defence 1.00, drawn from 23/23 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 45% | Draw 26% | SCR Altach 28%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual SCR Altach win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 39%, SCR Altach 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
SCR Altach's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 0.94. Form was overturned, with SCR Altach winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Lask Linz (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.