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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Ried cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Lask Linz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Ried beat Lask Linz 1-3 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.26 xG and Ried 1.11 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Ried outscored their 1.11 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.94 / defence 0.99 against Ried attack 0.85 / defence 0.95, drawn from 26/4 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 38% | Draw 32% | Ried 30%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Ried win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 75%, Ried 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lask Linz's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Ried's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lask Linz 0.75 PPG, Ried 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Ried win broke the near-deadlock. Ried scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights