🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as Lask Linz defy the odds to beat Red Bull Salzburg 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lask Linz beat Red Bull Salzburg 2-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Championship Group - 31, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.31 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.56 xG, a combined 2.87. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.12 / defence 1.12 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.21 / defence 0.87, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 32% | Draw 26% | Red Bull Salzburg 42%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Lask Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 58%, Red Bull Salzburg 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lask Linz's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.76 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights