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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Lask Linz cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Rapid Vienna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lask Linz beat Rapid Vienna 3-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Championship Group - 30, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.50 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.17 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lask Linz beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.12 / defence 1.13 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.90 / defence 0.99, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 44% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 29%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 57%, Rapid Vienna 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lask Linz's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.68 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights