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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Lask Linz run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Rapid Vienna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lask Linz beat Rapid Vienna 3-0 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.10 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.26 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lask Linz beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Rapid Vienna landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.01 / defence 0.94 against Rapid Vienna attack 1.01 / defence 0.81, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 32% | Draw 28% | Rapid Vienna 40%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Lask Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 54%, Rapid Vienna 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lask Linz's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.65 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights