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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant Lask Linz run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Austria Vienna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lask Linz beat Austria Vienna 4-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Championship Group - 25, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.42 xG and Austria Vienna 1.63 xG, a combined 3.05. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Lask Linz beat their projection by 2.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.14 / defence 1.15 against Austria Vienna attack 1.23 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 33% | Draw 25% | Austria Vienna 42%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Lask Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 57%, Austria Vienna 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lask Linz's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Austria Vienna's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.70 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.77 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights