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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Lask Linz defy the odds to beat Austria Vienna 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Lask Linz beat Austria Vienna 2-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.27 xG and Austria Vienna 1.53 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 0.86 / defence 1.04 against Austria Vienna attack 1.10 / defence 1.02, drawn from 24/24 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 32% | Draw 25% | Austria Vienna 43%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Lask Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 59%, Austria Vienna 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Lask Linz's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Austria Vienna's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.68 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights