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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Grazer AK and WSG Wattens share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grazer AK and WSG Wattens finished level at 1-1 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.58 xG and WSG Wattens 1.39 xG, a combined 2.97. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 1.03 / defence 1.11 against WSG Wattens attack 0.99 / defence 1.01, drawn from 24/24 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 42% | Draw 24% | WSG Wattens 34%, with Grazer AK to win its most likely call at 42%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 56%, WSG Wattens 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grazer AK's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

WSG Wattens's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grazer AK 0.85 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights