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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Grazer AK defy the odds to beat SCR Altach 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grazer AK beat SCR Altach 1-0 at Merkur Arena, Relegation Round - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.44 xG and SCR Altach 1.45 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SCR Altach landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.74 / defence 1.25 against SCR Altach attack 0.97 / defence 1.22, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 35% | Draw 30% | SCR Altach 35%, with Grazer AK to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 62%, SCR Altach 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grazer AK's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

SCR Altach's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grazer AK 0.71 PPG, SCR Altach 0.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grazer AK win broke the near-deadlock. Grazer AK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights