Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Rapid Vienna at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Grazer AK welcome Rapid Vienna to Merkur-Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 21 November 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Grazer AK have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D D L D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.40 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Grazer AK at Merkur-Arena this season: 4W 5D 1L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Grazer AK are significantly better at Merkur-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 9W 0D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 3.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Rapid Vienna are 1.70 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Grazer AK, 2 for Rapid Vienna and 2 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 5 meetings have averaged 3.6 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2026, ended 0–8 with Rapid Vienna winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.6 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Grazer AK in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Rapid Vienna in-play and half-time data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 56% versus Rapid Vienna 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 60% | Rapid Vienna 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 0.89 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.668 / defence 1.073 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.215 / defence 0.769. League average goals — home 1.731 / away 1.379. Grazer AK's attack strength of 0.668 is below the league average — the 0.89 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rapid Vienna's defence strength of 0.769 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Rapid Vienna have an above-average attack strength of 1.215 — the away xG of 1.80 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Grazer AK games / 33 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 15% | Draw 29% | Rapid Vienna 56%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 6.67 | Draw 3.45 | Rapid Vienna 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Rapid Vienna (56%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.69 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.6 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Grazer AK 50% | Rapid Vienna 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 15% | Draw 29% | Rapid Vienna 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Grazer AK 0.89 / Rapid Vienna 1.80 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 0.668 / def 1.073 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.215 / def 0.769 | league avg home 1.731 / away 1.379 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.89
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.80
Rapid Vienna xG
52%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna is scheduled to kick off at 18:30 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
Where is Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 15% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 56% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna?
Record (5 meetings): Grazer AK 1W | Draws 2 | Rapid Vienna 2W.
What form are Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.40 | L5 D-D-L-D-L. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 3.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Grazer AK's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Rapid Vienna's defensive record (0.77x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.89. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus Grazer AK's defence, projects 1.80 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.3%. Close behind: 0-2 (11.0%), 0-1 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
15%
6.65
29%
3.40
56%
1.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 2
11.0%
Away win
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.89
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.69
1.80
Rapid Vienna xG
6.65
15%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
1.80
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
17%
6.03
41%
2.44
Win to Nil
2%
40.06
23%
4.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 12.2 | 11.0 | 6.6 | 3.0 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.9 | 9.8 | 5.9 | 2.6 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 2.7 | 4.8 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 0.89 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.80 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 43 outings, Grazer AK have picked up 1.09 PPG on a 11W 14D 18L record — D-D-L-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Grazer AK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Rapid Vienna's form line: 21W 8D 14L from 43 games, 1.65 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Rapid Vienna are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Grazer AK.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Grazer AK have posted 1.48 PPG from 21 outings (7W 10D 4L).
On the road, Rapid Vienna have gone 8W 6D 7L from 21 away games — 1.43 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Grazer AK are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.63 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Last 43 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Blended
Rapid Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 11W 14D 18L in their last 43 games (1.09 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 21W 8D 14L in their last 43 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Grazer AK's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 1.48 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.43 PPG.
Have Grazer AK or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grazer AK have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna runs to 5 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Aug 2026, when Rapid Vienna won 8-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Grazer AK's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 0W 2D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Grazer AK
2
Draws
2
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna?
From 5 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 1, Rapid Vienna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when Rapid Vienna 8-0 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Grazer AK 67%, Rapid Vienna 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Grazer AK) and 43% (Rapid Vienna).
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Grazer AK's games and 57% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grazer AK vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Grazer AK's recent games and 43% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.