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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grazer AK and Rapid Vienna finished level at 1-1 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.02 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.60 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.89 / defence 1.17 against Rapid Vienna attack 1.06 / defence 0.81, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 24% | Draw 25% | Rapid Vienna 51%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 55%, Rapid Vienna 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grazer AK's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Rapid Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.55 PPG against 0.82. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights