🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Grazer AK cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over FC BW Linz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Grazer AK beat FC BW Linz 3-1 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.46 xG and FC BW Linz 0.98 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Grazer AK beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.94 / defence 1.00 against FC BW Linz attack 0.70 / defence 1.12, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 48% | Draw 26% | FC BW Linz 25%, with Grazer AK to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 54%, FC BW Linz 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grazer AK's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

FC BW Linz's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Grazer AK 0.87 PPG, FC BW Linz 1.04 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Grazer AK win broke the near-deadlock. Grazer AK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.04 average — above their attacking norm. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.65 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights