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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Austria Vienna edge out Grazer AK 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Austria Vienna beat Grazer AK 1-2 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 0.99 xG and Austria Vienna 1.58 xG, a combined 2.56. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 0.78 / defence 1.22 against Austria Vienna attack 1.09 / defence 0.88, drawn from 19/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 20% | Draw 32% | Austria Vienna 48%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 63%, Austria Vienna 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Grazer AK's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Austria Vienna's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights