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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as WSG Wattens defy the odds to beat FC BW Linz 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

WSG Wattens beat FC BW Linz 2-3 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 21, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.29 xG and WSG Wattens 1.18 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. WSG Wattens outscored their 1.18 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 1.00 / defence 1.11 against WSG Wattens attack 0.91 / defence 0.98, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 39% | Draw 27% | WSG Wattens 34%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual WSG Wattens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 52%, WSG Wattens 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC BW Linz's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

WSG Wattens's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 1.00 PPG, WSG Wattens 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.31 concession average — a leakier day than usual. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights