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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC BW Linz defy the odds to beat WSG Wattens 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC BW Linz beat WSG Wattens 2-1 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.24 xG and WSG Wattens 1.41 xG, a combined 2.65. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.87 / defence 1.12 against WSG Wattens attack 1.05 / defence 0.96, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 30% | Draw 33% | WSG Wattens 38%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual FC BW Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 49%, WSG Wattens 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC BW Linz's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.

WSG Wattens's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 1.10 PPG, WSG Wattens 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC BW Linz win broke the near-deadlock. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights