FC BW Linz 0-1 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates FC BW Linz at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
FC BW Linz host Wolfsberger AC at Hofmann Personal Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 19 October 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
FC BW Linz — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for FC BW Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC BW Linz's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Hofmann Personal Stadion this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W D W L L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Wolfsberger AC's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (FC BW Linz) versus 1.30 (Wolfsberger AC). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for FC BW Linz, 0 for Wolfsberger AC and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 27 Apr 2024, ended 2–0 with FC BW Linz winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
FC BW Linz trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 51% versus Wolfsberger AC 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 46% | Wolfsberger AC 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.44 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 1.005 / defence 0.840 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.344 / defence 0.883. League average goals — home 1.618 / away 1.177. Wolfsberger AC have an above-average attack strength of 1.344 — the away xG of 1.33 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 31 FC BW Linz games / 31 Wolfsberger AC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 40% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 35%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 2.50 | Draw 4.00 | Wolfsberger AC 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC BW Linz are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC BW Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: FC BW Linz 50% | Wolfsberger AC 40%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 19 Oct 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 40% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG FC BW Linz 1.44 / Wolfsberger AC 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 1.005 / def 0.840 | Wolfsberger AC attack 1.344 / def 0.883 | league avg home 1.618 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: FC BW Linz (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Wolfsberger AC xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 19 October 2024 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
FC BW Linz 0 - 1 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 40% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 35% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making FC BW Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (2 meetings): FC BW Linz 1W | Draws 1 | Wolfsberger AC 0W.
What form are FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC in?
FC BW Linz (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-W-L-D. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-D-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
FC BW Linz's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (0.88x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.44. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus FC BW Linz's defence, projects 1.33 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC BW Linz Win
40%
2.52
25%
3.93
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.76
1.33
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.52
40%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
11%
9.51
8%
12.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.0 | 8.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.5 | 8.6 | 5.7 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.5 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 1.33 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 41 outings, FC BW Linz have picked up 1.12 PPG on a 11W 13D 17L record — L-W-W-L-D across the most recent five. The sample for FC BW Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 15W 11D 15L from 41 games, 1.37 PPG, last five W-D-W-L-L. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: FC BW Linz on 1.12 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.37. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, FC BW Linz have posted 1.45 PPG from 20 outings (7W 8D 5L).
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 8W 6D 6L from 20 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.49 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.49 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Blended
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 11W 13D 17L in their last 41 games (1.12 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 15W 11D 15L in their last 41 (1.37 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.45 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.50 PPG.
Have FC BW Linz or Wolfsberger AC been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC BW Linz have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Wolfsberger AC in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 21 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Aug 2025, when Wolfsberger AC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
FC BW Linz's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
FC BW Linz
2
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC?
From 10 meetings on record, FC BW Linz have won 4, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 21 April 2026, when FC BW Linz 3-0 Wolfsberger AC.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 50%, Wolfsberger AC 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (FC BW Linz) and 50% (Wolfsberger AC).
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Wolfsberger AC in 35%; Wolfsberger AC in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when FC BW Linz play Wolfsberger AC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 40% of Wolfsberger AC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is FC BW Linz vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of FC BW Linz's recent games and 50% of Wolfsberger AC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do FC BW Linz and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
FC BW Linz have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Wolfsberger AC defy the odds to beat FC BW Linz 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Wolfsberger AC beat FC BW Linz 0-1 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.44 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.33 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC BW Linz fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 1.00 / defence 0.84 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.34 / defence 0.88, drawn from 31/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 40% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 35%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Wolfsberger AC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 46%, Wolfsberger AC 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 1.12 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.37 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.20 scoring average — below par going forward. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.30 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.