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Shock result as TSV Hartberg defy the odds to beat FC BW Linz 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

TSV Hartberg beat FC BW Linz 0-1 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 2.07 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.39 xG, a combined 3.46. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. FC BW Linz fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 1.04 / defence 0.99 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.02 / defence 1.26, drawn from 23/23 games (PrevSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 53% | Draw 22% | TSV Hartberg 25%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a TSV Hartberg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 67%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 46% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 58%, TSV Hartberg 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC BW Linz's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 1.15 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.38 scoring average — below par going forward. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights