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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out FC BW Linz 3-4.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Sturm Graz beat FC BW Linz 3-4 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 0.80 xG and Sturm Graz 1.49 xG, a combined 2.29. The scoreboard read 3-4 for 7 actual goals. FC BW Linz beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sturm Graz outscored their 1.49 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.96 / defence 0.85 against Sturm Graz attack 1.37 / defence 0.63, drawn from 31/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 20% | Draw 26% | Sturm Graz 54%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 55%, Sturm Graz 60%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC BW Linz's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Sturm Graz's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.32 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights