🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as FC BW Linz edge out SCR Altach 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC BW Linz beat SCR Altach 1-0 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 0.98 xG and SCR Altach 0.96 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SCR Altach landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.91 / defence 0.91 against SCR Altach attack 0.83 / defence 0.76, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 35% | Draw 31% | SCR Altach 34%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 35%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 56%, SCR Altach 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC BW Linz's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.

SCR Altach's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 1.08 PPG, SCR Altach 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC BW Linz win broke the near-deadlock. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights