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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC BW Linz edge out Ried 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC BW Linz beat Ried 3-2 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Relegation Group - 24, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.60 xG and Ried 1.26 xG, a combined 2.86. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. FC BW Linz beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 1.04 / defence 1.26 against Ried attack 0.87 / defence 1.14, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 44% | Draw 26% | Ried 30%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 44%, Ried 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC BW Linz's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Ried's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Ried arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.65. Form was overturned, with FC BW Linz winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.27 average — above their attacking norm. Ried (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights