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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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FC BW Linz and Rapid Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 17, as FC BW Linz and Rapid Vienna drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.21 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.40 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.92 / defence 1.15 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.89 / defence 0.95, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 32% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 41%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 54%, Rapid Vienna 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC BW Linz's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 1.00 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.40 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights