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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as FC BW Linz edge out Rapid Vienna 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC BW Linz beat Rapid Vienna 2-1 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Championship Round - 5, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.78 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.18 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 1.10 / defence 1.06 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 49% | Draw 29% | Rapid Vienna 23%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 52%, Rapid Vienna 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC BW Linz's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 1.12 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC BW Linz win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights