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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Dominant FC BW Linz run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Grazer AK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC BW Linz beat Grazer AK 3-0 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.34 xG and Grazer AK 1.20 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. FC BW Linz beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Grazer AK landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.77 / defence 1.01 against Grazer AK attack 0.87 / defence 1.32, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 40% | Draw 27% | Grazer AK 33%, with FC BW Linz to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 57%, Grazer AK 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC BW Linz's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not.

Grazer AK's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 1.05 PPG, Grazer AK 0.84 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC BW Linz win broke the near-deadlock. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.22 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.22 average — tighter than their form line. Grazer AK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights