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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Austria Vienna edge out FC BW Linz 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Austria Vienna beat FC BW Linz 2-3 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.36 xG and Austria Vienna 1.70 xG, a combined 3.06. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Austria Vienna outscored their 1.70 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.98 / defence 1.06 against Austria Vienna attack 1.21 / defence 1.03, drawn from 35/35 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 31% | Draw 24% | Austria Vienna 45%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 45%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 53%, Austria Vienna 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC BW Linz's trading profile (45 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Austria Vienna's trading profile (45 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.07. That form edge translated into the three points. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.23 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights