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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Austria Vienna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over FC BW Linz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Austria Vienna beat FC BW Linz 0-2 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Championship Round - 1, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.37 xG and Austria Vienna 1.48 xG, a combined 2.85. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. FC BW Linz fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 1.10 / defence 1.07 against Austria Vienna attack 1.15 / defence 0.78, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 32% | Draw 31% | Austria Vienna 37%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 52%, Austria Vienna 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

FC BW Linz's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Austria Vienna's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights