FC BW Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from FC BW Linz's attack rating (0.90) and Austria Klagenfurt's defence rating (1.48), the model arrives at 2.05 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Klagenfurt's attack versus FC BW Linz's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 1-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC BW Linz Win
67%
1.49
21%
4.86
12%
8.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.05
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.81
0.76
Austria Klagenfurt xG
1.49
67%
Home win
4.86
21%
Draw
8.05
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
13%
7.78
Win to Nil
31%
3.20
2%
62.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.3 | 9.4 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.6 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.6 | 6.6 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.4 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 2.05 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 0.76 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 67%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.