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Wolfsberger AC cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Austria Vienna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Wolfsberger AC beat Austria Vienna 0-2 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 2, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.56 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.25 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Austria Vienna fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.02 / defence 0.94 against Wolfsberger AC attack 1.11 / defence 0.96, drawn from 23/23 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 44% | Draw 25% | Wolfsberger AC 31%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Wolfsberger AC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 54%, Wolfsberger AC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Austria Vienna's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.85 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Wolfsberger AC win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights