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TSV Hartberg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Austria Vienna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

TSV Hartberg beat Austria Vienna 1-3 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.41 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.26 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. TSV Hartberg outscored their 1.26 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 0.87 / defence 1.03 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.00 / defence 1.10, drawn from 25/25 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 40% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 33%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 54%, TSV Hartberg 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Austria Vienna's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.74 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.18 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights