🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Austria Vienna cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sturm Graz.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Austria Vienna beat Sturm Graz 3-1 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 0.85 xG and Sturm Graz 1.77 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Austria Vienna beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 0.78 / defence 1.02 against Sturm Graz attack 1.28 / defence 0.79, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 18% | Draw 23% | Sturm Graz 59%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Austria Vienna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 27% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 58%, Sturm Graz 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Austria Vienna's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Sturm Graz's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.73 PPG, Sturm Graz 1.90 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.46 average — above their attacking norm. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights