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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Austria Vienna defy the odds to beat SCR Altach 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Austria Vienna beat SCR Altach 1-0 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 5, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 0.91 xG and SCR Altach 1.54 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. SCR Altach landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against SCR Altach attack 0.93 / defence 0.79, drawn from 26/26 games (Blended).

On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 21% | Draw 29% | SCR Altach 51%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Austria Vienna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 56%, SCR Altach 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Austria Vienna's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.

SCR Altach's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights