Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Austria Vienna's attack at 1.17x the league average against SCR Altach's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.83 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.7%), 1-1 (11.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
65%
1.55
23%
4.41
13%
7.95
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.83
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.50
0.67
SCR Altach xG
1.55
65%
Home win
4.41
23%
Draw
7.95
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.41
58%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
51%
1.96
16%
6.25
Win to Nil
33%
3.03
2%
49.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 5.5 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.0 | 10.1 | 3.4 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.7 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.4 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.83 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 0.67 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs SCR Altach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.