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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Austria Vienna defy the odds to beat Ried 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Austria Vienna beat Ried 3-2 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.14 xG and Ried 1.43 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Austria Vienna beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 0.89 / defence 1.05 against Ried attack 1.06 / defence 0.93, drawn from 28/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 30% | Draw 26% | Ried 44%, with Ried to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual Austria Vienna win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 50%, Ried 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Austria Vienna's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Ried's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.17 PPG, Ried 1.17 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.67 average — above their attacking norm. Ried (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights