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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Red Bull Salzburg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Austria Vienna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Red Bull Salzburg beat Austria Vienna 1-3 at Generali Arena, Championship Group - 27, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.24 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.43 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.07 / defence 1.01 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.24 / defence 0.86, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 32% | Draw 27% | Red Bull Salzburg 41%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 57%, Red Bull Salzburg 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Austria Vienna's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.72 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.69 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Red Bull Salzburg win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.28 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.45 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights