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Dominant Red Bull Salzburg run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Austria Vienna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Red Bull Salzburg beat Austria Vienna 0-3 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.33 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.55 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Austria Vienna fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Red Bull Salzburg outscored their 1.55 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 0.92 / defence 1.05 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.06 / defence 1.09, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 33% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 43%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 55%, Red Bull Salzburg 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Austria Vienna's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.81 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Red Bull Salzburg win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.45 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights