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Red Bull Salzburg cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Austria Vienna.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Red Bull Salzburg beat Austria Vienna 1-3 at Generali Arena, Championship Round - 4, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.30 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 0.81 xG, a combined 2.11. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg outscored their 0.81 projection by 2.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.02 / defence 0.82 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.82 / defence 0.79, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 45% | Draw 35% | Red Bull Salzburg 20%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 45%. Instead the game produced a Red Bull Salzburg win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 47%, Red Bull Salzburg 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Austria Vienna's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.79 PPG, Red Bull Salzburg 1.95 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Red Bull Salzburg win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.54 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights