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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Rapid Vienna defy the odds to beat Austria Vienna 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Rapid Vienna beat Austria Vienna 1-2 at Generali Arena, Championship Round - 8, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.66 xG and Rapid Vienna 0.94 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Rapid Vienna outscored their 0.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.02 / defence 0.84 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.93 / defence 1.01, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 51% | Draw 30% | Rapid Vienna 19%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Rapid Vienna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 48%, Rapid Vienna 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Austria Vienna's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Rapid Vienna's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.36. Form was overturned, with Rapid Vienna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights