🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Austria Vienna edge out Grazer AK 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Austria Vienna beat Grazer AK 2-1 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.22 xG and Grazer AK 0.96 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 0.80 / defence 1.17 against Grazer AK attack 0.61 / defence 1.15, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 42% | Draw 29% | Grazer AK 29%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 42%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 57%, Grazer AK 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Austria Vienna's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Grazer AK's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.84. Form held, and they took the win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights