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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as FC BW Linz defy the odds to beat Austria Vienna 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

FC BW Linz beat Austria Vienna 0-1 at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.62 xG and FC BW Linz 1.08 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Austria Vienna fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.06 / defence 1.13 against FC BW Linz attack 0.78 / defence 1.15, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 50% | Draw 25% | FC BW Linz 25%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a FC BW Linz win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 55%, FC BW Linz 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Austria Vienna's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.

FC BW Linz's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 1.12. Form was overturned, with FC BW Linz winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights