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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Austria Vienna and FC BW Linz share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Austria Vienna and FC BW Linz finished level at 2-2 at Generali Arena, Championship Round - 10, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.45 xG and FC BW Linz 0.99 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. FC BW Linz outscored their 0.99 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.02 / defence 0.85 against FC BW Linz attack 0.96 / defence 0.89, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 45% | Draw 32% | FC BW Linz 23%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 49%, FC BW Linz 51%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Austria Vienna's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

FC BW Linz's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.10. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.84 concession average — a leakier day than usual. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.90 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights