Austria Vienna 1-1 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Austria Vienna (65%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Austria Vienna face Austria Lustenau.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Generali Arena plays host to Austria Vienna versus Austria Lustenau in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 3. Kick-off: Saturday 6 April 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Austria Vienna have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 4D 2L. Last five: L W W D D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Austria Vienna have posted 5W 5D 0L at Generali Arena — 2.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Generali Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Austria Lustenau (all games): 2W 2D 6L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Lustenau away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.30 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Austria Vienna's 1.60 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Austria Lustenau's 0.80 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Austria Lustenau in only 10%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 6 head-to-head meetings have produced 3 wins for Austria Vienna, 1 for Austria Lustenau and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Nov 2023, ended 1–0 with Austria Vienna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Vienna — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Austria Lustenau — key trading statistics (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 55% versus Austria Lustenau 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 62% | Austria Lustenau 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.90 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.096 / defence 0.809 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.855 / defence 1.291. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.013. Austria Lustenau bring a strong defensive rating of 1.291 — this is suppressing Austria Vienna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Austria Vienna games / 44 Austria Lustenau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 65% | Draw 23% | Austria Lustenau 12%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 1.54 | Draw 4.35 | Austria Lustenau 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Austria Vienna (65%) — a 53pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.60. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.60 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 65% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 30% | Austria Lustenau 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Apr 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 65% | Draw 23% | Austria Lustenau 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 44% | xG Austria Vienna 1.90 / Austria Lustenau 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.096 / def 0.809 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.855 / def 1.291 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Austria Lustenau xG
44%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 April 2024 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Austria Vienna 1 - 1 Austria Lustenau.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau part of?
Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau is a Relegation Round - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 65% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 12% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau?
Record (6 meetings): Austria Vienna 3W | Draws 2 | Austria Lustenau 1W.
What form are Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Austria Lustenau (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Austria Vienna's attack rating (1.10) and Austria Lustenau's defence rating (1.29), the model arrives at 1.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Austria Lustenau's attack (0.85x) against Austria Vienna's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.8%), 1-1 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
65%
1.54
23%
4.30
12%
8.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.1%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.4%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.60
0.70
Austria Lustenau xG
1.54
65%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
8.33
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.28
56%
BTTS No
1.78
Clean Sheet
50%
2.02
15%
6.65
Win to Nil
32%
3.11
2%
55.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.5 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.1 | 9.9 | 3.5 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.4 | 9.4 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.5 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 0.70 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Austria Vienna's recent record stands at 21W 19D 18L from 58 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Lustenau, meanwhile, have gone 13W 16D 29L across 58 games — 0.95 PPG, with L-D-W-D-L in their last five. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Austria Vienna by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Austria Lustenau heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Austria Vienna have managed 13W 10D 6L from 29 games — 1.69 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Lustenau's away record stands at 6W 11D 12L across 29 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.12 scored and 1.91 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Blended
Austria Lustenau
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 21W 19D 18L in their last 58 games (1.41 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 13W 16D 29L in their last 58 (0.95 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or Austria Lustenau away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.69 PPG; Austria Lustenau away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Austria Vienna won 5-0 on 11 Jun 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Austria Lustenau — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Austria Vienna
3
Draws
2
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau?
From 8 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 3, Austria Lustenau have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2024, when Austria Lustenau 2-0 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Austria Lustenau see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 48%, Austria Lustenau 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (Austria Vienna) and 41% (Austria Lustenau).
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Austria Vienna have failed to score in 28% of games; Austria Lustenau in 41%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Austria Lustenau?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 45% of Austria Lustenau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Vienna vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 62% of Austria Vienna's recent games and 41% of Austria Lustenau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna and Austria Lustenau finished level at 1-1 at Generali Arena, Relegation Round - 3, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.90 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.70 xG, a combined 2.60. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Austria Vienna fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.10 / defence 0.81 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.85 / defence 1.29, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 65% | Draw 23% | Austria Lustenau 12%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 65%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 62%, Austria Lustenau 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.41 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.