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Shock result as TSV Hartberg defy the odds to beat Austria Klagenfurt 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

TSV Hartberg beat Austria Klagenfurt 0-1 at 28 Black Arena, Relegation Round - 10, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.60 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.19 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Austria Klagenfurt fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.97 / defence 1.14 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.87 / defence 1.03, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 44% | Draw 30% | TSV Hartberg 26%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual TSV Hartberg win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 56%, TSV Hartberg 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

TSV Hartberg's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Austria Klagenfurt 1.05 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.35 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights