🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Shock result as SCR Altach defy the odds to beat Austria Klagenfurt 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

SCR Altach beat Austria Klagenfurt 2-3 at 28 Black Arena, Relegation Round - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.89 xG and SCR Altach 1.37 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. SCR Altach outscored their 1.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.96 / defence 1.18 against SCR Altach attack 0.97 / defence 1.23, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 47% | Draw 27% | SCR Altach 25%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a SCR Altach win, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 54%, SCR Altach 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.

SCR Altach's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Austria Klagenfurt 1.15 PPG, SCR Altach 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the SCR Altach win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.85 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights