Austria Klagenfurt 4-3 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Red Bull Salzburg (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Austria Klagenfurt face Red Bull Salzburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Red Bull Salzburg make the trip to Wörthersee Stadion to face Austria Klagenfurt in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 6. The match kicks off on Wednesday 24 April 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Austria Klagenfurt (all games): 2W 4D 4L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Klagenfurt's home record at Wörthersee Stadion: 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
Red Bull Salzburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W D L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Red Bull Salzburg are 1.10 PPG clear of Austria Klagenfurt in recent Bundesliga fixtures (2.10 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H Analysis
Across the last 7 meetings, Red Bull Salzburg have the stronger historical record — 6 wins to Austria Klagenfurt's 0, with 1 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.1 per game across 7 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 21 Apr 2024, ended 2–4 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Red Bull Salzburg have won 6 of 7 previous encounters, and at 3.1 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Klagenfurt — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 59% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.
Red Bull Salzburg — key trading statistics (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Klagenfurt 58% versus Red Bull Salzburg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Klagenfurt 61% | Red Bull Salzburg 48%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.02 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.991 / defence 1.032 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.141 / defence 0.772. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Red Bull Salzburg's defence strength of 0.772 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 44 Austria Klagenfurt games / 44 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 30% | Draw 32% | Red Bull Salzburg 38%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 3.33 | Draw 3.12 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Red Bull Salzburg are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.22 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 46%. Form rates corroborate: Austria Klagenfurt 50% | Red Bull Salzburg 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 6 | Venue: Wörthersee Stadion • Kick-off: Wednesday 24 Apr 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 30% | Draw 32% | Red Bull Salzburg 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 46% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.02 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.19 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.991 / def 1.032 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.141 / def 0.772 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.02
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.19
Red Bull Salzburg xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 17:30 on Wednesday 24 April 2024 at Wörthersee Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Austria Klagenfurt 4 - 3 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Wörthersee Stadion.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Championship Round - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 30% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 38% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg?
Record (7 meetings): Austria Klagenfurt 0W | Draws 1 | Red Bull Salzburg 6W.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg in?
Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Austria Klagenfurt's attack rating (0.99) and Red Bull Salzburg's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 1.02 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Red Bull Salzburg's attack (1.14x) against Austria Klagenfurt's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.19.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 0-1 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
30%
3.34
32%
3.16
38%
2.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.0%
Away win
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.02
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
2.22
1.19
Red Bull Salzburg xG
3.34
30%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
2.61
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.17
54%
BTTS No
1.85
Clean Sheet
30%
3.29
36%
2.78
Win to Nil
9%
11.00
14%
7.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 13.0 | 7.7 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 13.3 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.8 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.02 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.19 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Austria Klagenfurt have picked up 1.25 PPG on a 19W 17D 23L record — L-L-D-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Red Bull Salzburg's form line: 41W 14D 4L from 59 games, 2.32 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Red Bull Salzburg are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Austria Klagenfurt.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 1.17 PPG from 29 outings (8W 10D 11L).
On the road, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 21W 6D 2L from 29 away games — 2.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.34 goals scored and 1.73 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.10 scored and 0.69 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 51% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 19W 17D 23L in their last 59 games (1.25 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 41W 14D 4L in their last 59 (2.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (2.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 1.17 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 2.38 PPG.
Have Austria Klagenfurt or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Klagenfurt have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 51%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 February 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Red Bull Salzburg won 0-3 on 2 Apr 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Red Bull Salzburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Austria Klagenfurt
2
Draws
7
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 1, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2025, when Austria Klagenfurt 0-0 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Klagenfurt 52%, Red Bull Salzburg 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Austria Klagenfurt) and 52% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 52%; Austria Klagenfurt have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Klagenfurt play Red Bull Salzburg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Austria Klagenfurt's recent matches and 48% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Klagenfurt vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Austria Klagenfurt's recent games and 52% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
Austria Klagenfurt have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Austria Klagenfurt defy the odds to beat Red Bull Salzburg 4-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt beat Red Bull Salzburg 4-3 at Wörthersee Stadion, Championship Round - 6, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.02 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.19 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 4-3 for 7 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Red Bull Salzburg outscored their 1.19 projection by 1.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.99 / defence 1.03 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.14 / defence 0.77, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 30% | Draw 32% | Red Bull Salzburg 38%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual Austria Klagenfurt win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 18% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 61%, Red Bull Salzburg 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 51% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.32 PPG against 1.25. Form was overturned, with Austria Klagenfurt winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.14 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 0.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.