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Stalemate at Austria Klagenfurt's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at 28 Black Arena, Relegation Round - 4, as Austria Klagenfurt and Grazer AK drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 2.04 xG and Grazer AK 1.30 xG, a combined 3.35. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt fell 2.0 short of their projected output. Grazer AK landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.97 / defence 1.17 against Grazer AK attack 0.93 / defence 1.32, drawn from 44/22 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 52% | Draw 26% | Grazer AK 22%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 52%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 87% and missed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 64%, Grazer AK 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Grazer AK's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Austria Klagenfurt 0.96 PPG, Grazer AK 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.67 average — tighter than their form line. Grazer AK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.17 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights