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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Austria Klagenfurt cruise to a comfortable 4-2 victory over Grazer AK.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Austria Klagenfurt beat Grazer AK 4-2 at 28 Black Arena, Regular Season - 19, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.31 xG and Grazer AK 1.19 xG, a combined 2.50. The scoreboard read 4-2 for 6 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Grazer AK outscored their 1.19 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.80 / defence 1.00 against Grazer AK attack 1.02 / defence 1.18, drawn from 40/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 36% | Draw 35% | Grazer AK 30%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 36%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 56%, Grazer AK 61%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did.

Grazer AK's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Austria Klagenfurt 0.94 PPG, Grazer AK 0.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Klagenfurt win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Grazer AK (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights