Sharjah FC 4-1 Dibba Al-Fujairah – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 56% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Sharjah FC welcome Dibba Al-Fujairah to Sharjah Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 7 March 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sharjah FC — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sharjah FC have posted 3W 0D 7L at Sharjah Stadium — 0.90 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Across all Pro League games this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Dibba Al-Fujairah, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Dibba Al-Fujairah have posted 1W 2D 5L from 8 away outings — 0.62 PPG. Away from home they average 0.75 goals scored and 2.12 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sharjah FC at 1.00 PPG versus Dibba Al-Fujairah's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Sharjah FC have won 2, Dibba Al-Fujairah 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Aug 2025, ended 3–1 with Sharjah FC winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sharjah FC trading profile (17 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 47%; they fail to score in 35% of games.
Dibba Al-Fujairah trading profile (17 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 43% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 53% versus Dibba Al-Fujairah 65%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 53% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.92 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 0.993 / defence 1.214 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.620 / defence 1.420. League average goals — home 1.364 / away 1.464. Dibba Al-Fujairah bring a strong defensive rating of 1.420 — this is suppressing Sharjah FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Sharjah FC games / 17 Dibba Al-Fujairah games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 56% | Draw 22% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 21%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 1.79 | Draw 4.55 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Sharjah FC (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 3.03. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.03 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.03 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 58% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sharjah FC 50% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 7 Mar 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 56% | Draw 22% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 57% | xG Sharjah FC 1.92 / Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 0.993 / def 1.214 | Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.620 / def 1.420 | league avg home 1.364 / away 1.464 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.92
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
57%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 7 March 2026 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Sharjah FC 4 - 1 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah part of?
Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 56% chance of winning, Dibba Al-Fujairah a 21% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sharjah FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Record (3 meetings): Sharjah FC 2W | Draws 1 | Dibba Al-Fujairah 0W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Dibba Al-Fujairah (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sharjah FC's attack rating (0.99) and Dibba Al-Fujairah's defence rating (1.42), the model arrives at 1.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dibba Al-Fujairah's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/17 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
56%
1.77
22%
4.53
21%
4.66
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.92
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
3.03
1.10
Dibba Al-Fujairah xG
1.77
56%
Home win
4.53
22%
Draw
4.66
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
15%
6.84
Win to Nil
19%
5.33
3%
31.89
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.0 | 9.9 | 5.5 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.8 | 6.3 | 3.5 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah expected to score?
The model projects 1.92 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.10 for Dibba Al-Fujairah, a combined total of 3.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sharjah FC come into this having played 17 games, going 5W 2D 10L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Dibba Al-Fujairah sit at 0.76 PPG from 17 outings (3W 4D 10L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for Dibba Al-Fujairah is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Sharjah FC on 1.00 PPG, Dibba Al-Fujairah on 0.76. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Sharjah FC's home form reads 2W 0D 5L across 7 games on their own ground, a 0.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Dibba Al-Fujairah have taken 0.71 points per game from 7 outings (1W 2D 4L).
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game recently; Dibba Al-Fujairah are on 0.94 scored and 1.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dibba Al-Fujairah in 65%.
Last 17 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 5W 2D 10L in their last 17 games (1.00 PPG), while Dibba Al-Fujairah have gone 3W 4D 10L in their last 17 (0.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Dibba Al-Fujairah away?
Sharjah FC's home record (0.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 0.86 PPG; Dibba Al-Fujairah away: 0.71 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to December 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 7 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sharjah FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Mar 2026, when Sharjah FC won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Dibba Al-Fujairah specifically: 1W 1D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sharjah FC
1
Draws
0
Dibba Al-Fujairah
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
From 4 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 3, Dibba Al-Fujairah have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah last play each other?
They last met on 7 March 2026, when Sharjah FC 4-1 Dibba Al-Fujairah.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Dibba Al-Fujairah see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 43%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Sharjah FC) and 43% (Dibba Al-Fujairah).
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC have failed to score in 43% of games; Dibba Al-Fujairah in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Dibba Al-Fujairah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Dibba Al-Fujairah?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 43% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Dibba Al-Fujairah usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Sharjah FC's recent games and 43% of Dibba Al-Fujairah's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Dominant Sharjah FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Dibba Al-Fujairah.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Dibba Al-Fujairah 4-1 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.92 xG and Dibba Al-Fujairah 1.10 xG, a combined 3.03. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Sharjah FC beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 0.99 / defence 1.21 against Dibba Al-Fujairah attack 0.62 / defence 1.42, drawn from 43/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 56% | Draw 22% | Dibba Al-Fujairah 21%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 56%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 36% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 53%, Dibba Al-Fujairah 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Dibba Al-Fujairah's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 65% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sharjah FC 1.00 PPG, Dibba Al-Fujairah 0.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Sharjah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Dibba Al-Fujairah (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.