Sharjah FC 5-0 Al Urooba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 59% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 21 as Sharjah FC welcome Al Urooba to Sharjah Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 30 April 2022 at 19:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Sharjah FC — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sharjah Stadium, Sharjah FC have gone 8W 0D 2L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Sharjah Stadium. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Urooba have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Urooba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Al Urooba have gone 0W 2D 7L from 9 away fixtures this term (0.22 PPG). Away from home they average 0.67 goals scored and 2.67 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Sharjah FC have the edge — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.30 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Sharjah FC have won 0, Al Urooba 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Oct 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sharjah FC trading profile (20 games, 9 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Al Urooba trading profile (20 games, 9 at away): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 35% versus Al Urooba 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 50% | Al Urooba 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.84 xG and Al Urooba 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 0.979 / defence 0.947 | Al Urooba attack 0.757 / defence 1.506. League average goals — home 1.247 / away 1.293. Al Urooba bring a strong defensive rating of 1.506 — this is suppressing Sharjah FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 20 Sharjah FC games / 20 Al Urooba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 59% | Draw 23% | Al Urooba 19%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 1.69 | Draw 4.35 | Al Urooba 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Sharjah FC (59%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.77. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.77 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 59% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.77 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sharjah FC 30% | Al Urooba 56%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 21 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 30 Apr 2022, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 59% | Draw 23% | Al Urooba 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 51% | xG Sharjah FC 1.84 / Al Urooba 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 0.979 / def 0.947 | Al Urooba attack 0.757 / def 1.506 | league avg home 1.247 / away 1.293 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.84
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Al Urooba xG
51%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba kicked off at 19:00 on Saturday 30 April 2022 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba?
Sharjah FC 5 - 0 Al Urooba.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba is a Regular Season - 21 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 59% chance of winning, Al Urooba a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al Urooba will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Urooba?
Record (1 meetings): Sharjah FC 0W | Draws 1 | Al Urooba 0W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Urooba in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Al Urooba (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Sharjah FC's attack at 0.98x the league average against Al Urooba's defence at 1.51x — combine the two and it projects 1.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Urooba's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 20/20 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
59%
1.70
23%
4.43
19%
5.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.84
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.77
0.93
Al Urooba xG
1.70
59%
Home win
4.43
23%
Draw
5.37
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
40%
2.52
16%
6.29
Win to Nil
23%
4.29
3%
33.80
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 5.8 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.6 | 10.7 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.5 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al Urooba expected to score?
The model projects 1.84 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 0.93 for Al Urooba, a combined total of 2.77.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 20 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 1.95 PPG on a 12W 3D 5L record — D-W-L-W-W across the most recent five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Urooba's form line: 1W 7D 12L from 20 games, 0.50 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L. The sample for Al Urooba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sharjah FC are the form team by 1.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Urooba.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 2.33 PPG from 9 outings (7W 0D 2L).
On the road, Al Urooba have gone 0W 2D 7L from 9 away games — 0.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Al Urooba are on 0.95 scored and 2.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Urooba in 60%.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 20 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al Urooba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Urooba in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 12W 3D 5L in their last 20 games (1.95 PPG), while Al Urooba have gone 1W 7D 12L in their last 20 (0.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al Urooba away?
Sharjah FC's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 2.33 PPG; Al Urooba away: 0.22 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al Urooba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Al Urooba in 0%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Al Urooba runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Sharjah FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Apr 2022, when Sharjah FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Al Urooba specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Sharjah FC
1
Draws
0
Al Urooba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Urooba?
From 4 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 3, Al Urooba have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al Urooba last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2025, when Al Urooba 0-1 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al Urooba?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Al Urooba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 33%, Al Urooba 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Sharjah FC and 56% for Al Urooba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Al Urooba in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al Urooba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al Urooba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 56% of Al Urooba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al Urooba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Sharjah FC's matches and 56% of Al Urooba's.
Do Sharjah FC and Al Urooba tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Al Urooba in 89% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sharjah FC run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Al Urooba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al Urooba 5-0 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.84 xG and Al Urooba 0.93 xG, a combined 2.77. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Sharjah FC beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Urooba landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 0.98 / defence 0.95 against Al Urooba attack 0.76 / defence 1.51, drawn from 20/20 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 59% | Draw 23% | Al Urooba 19%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 50%, Al Urooba 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.
Al Urooba's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.11 average — tighter than their form line. Al Urooba (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 2.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.