Sharjah FC 2-2 Al Nasr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sharjah FC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Sharjah FC welcome Al Nasr to Sharjah Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 14 March 2024 at 18:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Sharjah FC have gone 4W 5D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: D D D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sharjah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Sharjah Stadium, Sharjah FC have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Nasr stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Nasr, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Nasr away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sharjah FC 1.70 PPG, Al Nasr 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Sharjah FC, 2 for Al Nasr and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Sharjah FC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Sharjah FC trading profile (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Al Nasr trading profile (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sharjah FC 46% versus Al Nasr 44%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sharjah FC 46% | Al Nasr 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.68 xG and Al Nasr 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.117 / defence 0.782 | Al Nasr attack 1.015 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.623. Sharjah FC's defence rating of 0.782 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 Sharjah FC games / 41 Al Nasr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 46% | Draw 24% | Al Nasr 29%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.17 | Draw 4.17 | Al Nasr 3.45. Sharjah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.96. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.96 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sharjah FC at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.96 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 70% | Al Nasr 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Sharjah Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 14 Mar 2024, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 46% | Draw 24% | Al Nasr 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Sharjah FC 1.68 / Al Nasr 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.117 / def 0.782 | Al Nasr attack 1.015 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.623 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Al Nasr xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
34%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr kicked off at 18:00 on Thursday 14 March 2024 at Sharjah Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr?
Sharjah FC 2 - 2 Al Nasr.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr being played?
The match is being played at Sharjah Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 46% chance of winning, Al Nasr a 29% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al Nasr will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Nasr?
Record (5 meetings): Sharjah FC 2W | Draws 1 | Al Nasr 2W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Nasr in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-D-D-W-L. Al Nasr (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Sharjah FC's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Al Nasr's defensive record (0.97x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Al Nasr's attack versus Sharjah FC's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 2-0 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
46%
2.16
24%
4.13
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
1 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
2.96
1.29
Al Nasr xG
2.16
46%
Home win
4.13
24%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
34%
Over 3.5
2.94
66%
Under 3.5
1.52
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
28%
3.63
19%
5.34
Win to Nil
13%
7.82
6%
18.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.2 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 8.6 | 11.1 | 7.2 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 7.2 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al Nasr expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.29 for Al Nasr, a combined total of 2.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 41 outings, Sharjah FC have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 19W 12D 10L record — D-D-D-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Sharjah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Nasr's form line: 13W 9D 19L from 41 games, 1.17 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-W. The sample for Al Nasr is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Sharjah FC are the form team by 0.51 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Nasr.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Sharjah FC have posted 1.50 PPG from 20 outings (8W 6D 6L).
On the road, Al Nasr have gone 4W 5D 11L from 20 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sharjah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sharjah FC are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Al Nasr are on 1.17 scored and 1.54 conceded.
Defensively: Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 41 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Blended
Al Nasr
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al Nasr in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 19W 12D 10L in their last 41 games (1.68 PPG), while Al Nasr have gone 13W 9D 19L in their last 41 (1.17 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al Nasr away?
Sharjah FC's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.50 PPG; Al Nasr away: 0.85 PPG.
Have Sharjah FC or Al Nasr been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sharjah FC have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Al Nasr in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sharjah FC and Al Nasr runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2021, when Al Nasr won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sharjah FC's record when hosting Al Nasr specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sharjah FC
2
Draws
4
Al Nasr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al Nasr?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 4, Al Nasr have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al Nasr last play each other?
They last met on 11 March 2026, when Sharjah FC 1-2 Al Nasr.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Al Nasr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sharjah FC 50%, Al Nasr 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Sharjah FC) and 60% (Al Nasr). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sharjah FC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Al Nasr in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al Nasr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al Nasr?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sharjah FC's recent matches and 50% of Al Nasr's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al Nasr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Sharjah FC's matches and 60% of Al Nasr's.
Do Sharjah FC and Al Nasr tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Al Nasr in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sharjah FC and Al Nasr share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC and Al Nasr finished level at 2-2 at Sharjah Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.68 xG and Al Nasr 1.29 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.12 / defence 0.78 against Al Nasr attack 1.01 / defence 0.97, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 46% | Draw 24% | Al Nasr 29%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 46%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 46%, Al Nasr 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Al Nasr's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.68 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.