Sharjah FC 1-0 Al-Ittihad Kalba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sharjah FC at 41% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba meet at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 2. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 29 August 2024 at 17:30 UTC.
Current Form
Sharjah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 5D 1L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sharjah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sharjah FC's home record at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium: 3W 7D 0L from 10 Pro League appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al-Ittihad Kalba (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: W L D D D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al-Ittihad Kalba have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's away record: 3W 3D 4L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.30 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Sharjah FC register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, Sharjah FC are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 1, with 0 draws in between.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 2.8 goals per game across 6 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Feb 2024, ended 1–0 with Sharjah FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sharjah FC and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 6 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Sharjah FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 63%.
Al-Ittihad Kalba goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 77% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 77% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 52%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sharjah FC 82% and Al-Ittihad Kalba 74% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sharjah FC 63% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sharjah FC 1.70 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sharjah FC attack 1.032 / defence 0.967 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.019 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.647 / away 1.625. Data: 27 Sharjah FC games / 27 Al-Ittihad Kalba games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sharjah FC 41% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 36%. Fair-value odds: Sharjah FC 2.44 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 23% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 64% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.30. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 64% — the 3.30 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (1.70 / 1.60) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sharjah FC as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 23% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sharjah FC if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.30 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 64% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 65% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sharjah FC 80% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 80% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects. The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (27 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 29 Aug 2024, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sharjah FC 41% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 64% | BTTS 65% | xG Sharjah FC 1.70 / Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Sharjah FC attack 1.032 / def 0.967 | Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.019 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.647 / away 1.625 • Poisson stance: Sharjah FC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Sharjah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
65%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
64%
Over 2.5
42%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kick off?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba kicked off at 17:30 on Thursday 29 August 2024 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What was the final score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Sharjah FC 1 - 0 Al-Ittihad Kalba.
Where is Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba being played?
The match is being played at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium.
What competition is Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba part of?
Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our statistical model gives Sharjah FC a 41% chance of winning, Al-Ittihad Kalba a 36% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sharjah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba will score (BTTS).
Will Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 64%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Record (6 meetings): Sharjah FC 5W | Draws 0 | Al-Ittihad Kalba 1W.
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in?
Sharjah FC (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Al-Ittihad Kalba (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sharjah FC's attack at 1.03x the league average against Al-Ittihad Kalba's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Ittihad Kalba's attack (1.02x) against Sharjah FC's defence (0.97x) — and the away total comes out at 1.60.
The sample (27/27 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sharjah FC Win
41%
2.46
23%
4.35
36%
2.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Sharjah FC xG
Total xG
3.30
1.60
Al-Ittihad Kalba xG
2.46
41%
Home win
4.35
23%
Draw
2.74
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
64%
Over 2.5
1.56
36%
Under 2.5
2.78
42%
Over 3.5
2.38
58%
Under 3.5
1.72
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.53
35%
BTTS No
2.88
Clean Sheet
20%
4.96
18%
5.48
Win to Nil
8%
12.23
7%
15.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.7 | 5.9 | 4.7 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.0 | 8.0 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 4.8 | 3.9 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.1 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Sharjah FC and 1.60 for Al-Ittihad Kalba, a combined total of 3.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Sharjah FC come into this having played 27 games, going 11W 12D 4L for 1.67 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-W-W. It's still early in the season for Sharjah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Al-Ittihad Kalba sit at 1.00 PPG from 27 outings (6W 9D 12L), a run that reads W-L-D-D-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ittihad Kalba, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sharjah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.67 PPG clear of Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Sharjah FC's home form reads 4W 7D 2L across 13 games on their own ground, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, Al-Ittihad Kalba have taken 1.23 points per game from 13 outings (4W 4D 5L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sharjah FC are averaging 2.11 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Al-Ittihad Kalba are on 1.52 scored and 1.93 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sharjah FC have seen both teams score in 81% of their recent games; Al-Ittihad Kalba in 74%.
Last 27 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sharjah FC
Early Season
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba in coming into this match?
Sharjah FC have gone 11W 12D 4L in their last 27 games (1.67 PPG), while Al-Ittihad Kalba have gone 6W 9D 12L in their last 27 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sharjah FC at home or Al-Ittihad Kalba away?
Sharjah FC's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sharjah FC at home: 1.46 PPG; Al-Ittihad Kalba away: 1.23 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 17 March 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sharjah FC won 0-4 on 20 Dec 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sharjah FC have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Al-Ittihad Kalba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sharjah FC
1
Draws
2
Al-Ittihad Kalba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
From 10 meetings on record, Sharjah FC have won 7, Al-Ittihad Kalba have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba last play each other?
They last met on 17 March 2026, when Al-Ittihad Kalba 2-2 Sharjah FC.
Who has won more matches between Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Sharjah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sharjah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Al-Ittihad Kalba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 54% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 77% for Sharjah FC, 77% for Al-Ittihad Kalba — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Sharjah FC and 77% for Al-Ittihad Kalba. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 54% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sharjah FC home games / Al-Ittihad Kalba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sharjah FC play Al-Ittihad Kalba?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 77% of Sharjah FC's games and 77% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sharjah FC vs Al-Ittihad Kalba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Sharjah FC's matches and 77% of Al-Ittihad Kalba's.
Do Sharjah FC and Al-Ittihad Kalba tend to score early?
Sharjah FC have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Al-Ittihad Kalba in 77% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sharjah FC edge out Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sharjah FC beat Al-Ittihad Kalba 1-0 at Khalid Bin Mohammed Stadium, Regular Season - 2, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sharjah FC 1.70 xG and Al-Ittihad Kalba 1.60 xG, a combined 3.30. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Ittihad Kalba landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sharjah FC attack 1.03 / defence 0.97 against Al-Ittihad Kalba attack 1.02 / defence 1.00, drawn from 27/27 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sharjah FC 41% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad Kalba 36%, with Sharjah FC to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 64%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. Over 3.5 was 42% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sharjah FC 63%, Al-Ittihad Kalba 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 78%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sharjah FC's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 82% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Ittihad Kalba's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sharjah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.67 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sharjah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.46 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ittihad Kalba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.77 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.