Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 4-0 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis

Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (56%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai face Khorfakkan.

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Full Analysis

Rashid Stadium plays host to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai versus Khorfakkan in Pro League (matchday 22). Kick-off: Wednesday 23 April 2025 at 18:45 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have collected 2.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 8W 2D 0L from their last 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Khorfakkan's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.

Khorfakkan away from home: 5W 0D 5L from their last 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's favour (2.60 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record in our data favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, who have won 5 of the 6 H2H matches we hold against Khorfakkan — Khorfakkan have 0 wins, with 1 draw.

The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 8 Dec 2024, ended Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1–1 Khorfakkan — a draw.

The head-to-head data gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai an edge — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.

Trading & In-Play

Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 23 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.

Khorfakkan — key trading statistics (last 46 games, 23 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63% and Khorfakkan 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 76% | Khorfakkan 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.59 xG and Khorfakkan 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.072 / defence 0.647 | Khorfakkan attack 0.944 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.349. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have a tight defence (rating 0.647), which is pulling Khorfakkan's projected output down. Data: built from Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 46 games and Khorfakkan's last 47.

Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 56% | Draw 25% | Khorfakkan 19%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.80 | Draw 3.98 | Khorfakkan 5.16. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 45% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 55% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though recent form (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's last 10 home games and Khorfakkan's last 10 away games) averaging 3.2 goals per game points the other way.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 40% (last 10 home games) | Khorfakkan 70% (last 10 away games).

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