Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 4-0 Khorfakkan – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (56%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Shabab Al Ahli Dubai face Khorfakkan.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Rashid Stadium plays host to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai versus Khorfakkan in Pro League, Regular Season - 22. Kick-off: Wednesday 23 April 2025 at 17:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have collected 2.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 8W 2D 0L. Last five: W W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at Rashid Stadium this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Rashid Stadium.
Khorfakkan's overall Pro League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Khorfakkan, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Khorfakkan away from home this season: 5W 0D 5L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.90 in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's favour (2.60 vs 1.70) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, who have won 5 of the last 6 meetings against Khorfakkan — a 1D 0W return for the visitors.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Dec 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The historical record gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 78% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
Khorfakkan — key trading statistics (46 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 74% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 70% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 63% and Khorfakkan 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 76% | Khorfakkan 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.59 xG and Khorfakkan 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.072 / defence 0.647 | Khorfakkan attack 0.944 / defence 1.009. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.349. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence rating of 0.647 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 46 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai games / 47 Khorfakkan games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 56% | Draw 25% | Khorfakkan 19%. Fair-value odds: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.79 | Draw 4.00 | Khorfakkan 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (56%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.42 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 3.2 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 40% | Khorfakkan 70%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Rashid Stadium • Kick-off: Wednesday 23 Apr 2025, 17:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 56% | Draw 25% | Khorfakkan 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.59 / Khorfakkan 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.072 / def 0.647 | Khorfakkan attack 0.944 / def 1.009 | league avg home 1.470 / away 1.349 • Poisson stance: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Khorfakkan xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan kick off?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan kicked off at 17:45 on Wednesday 23 April 2025 at Rashid Stadium.
What was the final score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 4 - 0 Khorfakkan.
Where is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan being played?
The match is being played at Rashid Stadium.
What competition is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan part of?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Pro League (United-Arab-Emirates).
Who is favourite to win Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Our statistical model gives Shabab Al Ahli Dubai a 56% chance of winning, Khorfakkan a 19% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Shabab Al Ahli Dubai the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan will score (BTTS).
Will Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan?
Record (6 meetings): Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 5W | Draws 1 | Khorfakkan 0W.
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan in?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (all comps): 8W-2D-0L in 10 | 2.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Khorfakkan (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's attacking strength (1.07x league average) is weighed against Khorfakkan's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.59. Flip it around — Khorfakkan's attack (0.94x) against Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's defence (0.65x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 46/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 2-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai Win
56%
1.80
25%
3.98
19%
5.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
11.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai xG
Total xG
2.42
0.82
Khorfakkan xG
1.80
56%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
5.16
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
20%
4.91
Win to Nil
24%
4.11
4%
25.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.2 | 11.7 | 4.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.3 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 0.82 for Khorfakkan, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's recent record stands at 34W 8D 4L from 46 games, a 2.39 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five. The sample for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Khorfakkan, meanwhile, have gone 14W 10D 22L across 46 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-W-W-W-D in their last five. The sample for Khorfakkan is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shabab Al Ahli Dubai by 1.26 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Khorfakkan heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have managed 18W 3D 2L from 23 games — 2.48 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Khorfakkan's away record stands at 6W 4D 13L across 23 trips, a 0.96 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are averaging 2.54 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; Khorfakkan are on 1.43 scored and 1.89 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games; Khorfakkan in 67%.
Last 46 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
Blended
Khorfakkan
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan in coming into this match?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 34W 8D 4L in their last 46 games (2.39 PPG), while Khorfakkan have gone 14W 10D 22L in their last 46 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home or Khorfakkan away?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's home record (2.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shabab Al Ahli Dubai at home: 2.48 PPG; Khorfakkan away: 0.96 PPG.
Have Shabab Al Ahli Dubai or Khorfakkan been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Khorfakkan in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 15 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai won 4-0 on 23 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Khorfakkan — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai
2
Draws
0
Khorfakkan
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan?
From 10 meetings on record, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have won 8, Khorfakkan have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan last play each other?
They last met on 15 August 2026, when Khorfakkan 1-5 Shabab Al Ahli Dubai.
Who has won more matches between Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
Khorfakkan are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 56% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai, 74% for Khorfakkan — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 78% for Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and 70% for Khorfakkan. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shabab Al Ahli Dubai keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shabab Al Ahli Dubai home games / Khorfakkan away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shabab Al Ahli Dubai play Khorfakkan?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's games and 74% of Khorfakkan's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shabab Al Ahli Dubai vs Khorfakkan usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 78% of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's matches and 70% of Khorfakkan's.
Do Shabab Al Ahli Dubai and Khorfakkan tend to score early?
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Khorfakkan in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Shabab Al Ahli Dubai run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Khorfakkan.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat Khorfakkan 4-0 at Rashid Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 1.59 xG and Khorfakkan 0.82 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Khorfakkan landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shabab Al Ahli Dubai attack 1.07 / defence 0.65 against Khorfakkan attack 0.94 / defence 1.01, drawn from 46/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 56% | Draw 25% | Khorfakkan 19%, with Shabab Al Ahli Dubai to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 71% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shabab Al Ahli Dubai 76%, Khorfakkan 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shabab Al Ahli Dubai's trading profile (46 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.
Khorfakkan's trading profile (46 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Shabab Al Ahli Dubai arrived the stronger side — 2.39 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shabab Al Ahli Dubai (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.78 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Khorfakkan (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.35 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.13 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.